I don't get why the report - “The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans”- wasn’t titled “The Increase of Heterosexual Identity among Young Americans” instead.
The researchers chose to operate on an inverted Pareto principle, giving disproportionate attention to trends within the 10–20% that deviate from the norm while overlooking the 80% - 90% that conform to the norm.
The CCES and GSS (broader data) - as cited by the authors - show that, although numbers have risen slightly, fewer than 20% of 18- to 24-year-olds identify as non-heterosexual. The same data can just as accurately be described as showing that more than 80% identify as heterosexual and have done so over the past decade. Not too controversial.
Similarly, fewer than 10% of respondents consistently identify as neither male nor female, meaning over 90% still do and have over the last decade. Again, not too controversial.
When you look at the data in its entirety, the only thing this report shows is that when it comes to sexuality, a small percentage of the population deviates from the norm. And things haven't changed much over the past decade.
I don’t know - I think it’s OK to focus on phenomena found only in a small percentage of the population. If we didn’t, there’d be a lot of interesting and important stuff we’d have to start ignoring. E.g., we would have had to ignore COVID, because even at the peak of the pandemic, most people didn’t have it.
I do take your point, though, that heterosexuality is and always has been the most common identity, and that focusing on the exceptions could give a misleading impression of their frequency.
Good point. It’s not just about how widespread something is, but also how serious it can be.
The same applies to research on cancer or violent extremism — both, like COVID, affect relatively few people but have serious consequences, including death.
Even with serious topics, though, good research requires comparing what you find in one group to what you find in another. That’s how you know whether the result is specific to the group you’re studying.
Gallup did this in 2024 with sexual identity survey data. Two findings stand out:
•College graduates (9%) and nongraduates (10%) were about equally likely to identify as LGBTQ+.
•Nontraditional sexual identity strongly correlates with age: Gen Z (18–24) 23.1%, Millennials 14.2%, Gen X 5.1%, Boomers 3%, and the Silent Generation 1.8%.
Looking beyond the target group helps put things in context by answering "Compared to what?".
In this case, it suggests that youth are identifying as less heterosexual not because of woke colleges, but because they’re young.
Yep, agreed - it's important research these topics but also keep sight of the frequency of the phenomena under discussion. And good point about comparing across different demographics as a way of getting at underlying causes!
Good stuff as always. I’ve read research on two points that relate here. One is the literature out there on social contagion. It’s more real than some want to admit.
The other is a study that showed that a large number of lesbians turned out to be homosensual rather than homosexual. What they found was that of those who were found to be homosensual, they were abused by men as a child or late adolescence. Thus they were more male-averse than genuinely homosexual.
Once trauma was sorted out, their sexual inclinations redirected.
“fading of a fashion or trend”. Of course it is. As Grainger above says, social contagion is a real thing, especially with the power social media has in the lives of our youth. I suspect most of us who work with teens have understood this from the get-go. I expect to see more declines of this nature, even within the transgender cult. I guess we’ll see.
I don't get why the report - “The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans”- wasn’t titled “The Increase of Heterosexual Identity among Young Americans” instead.
The researchers chose to operate on an inverted Pareto principle, giving disproportionate attention to trends within the 10–20% that deviate from the norm while overlooking the 80% - 90% that conform to the norm.
The CCES and GSS (broader data) - as cited by the authors - show that, although numbers have risen slightly, fewer than 20% of 18- to 24-year-olds identify as non-heterosexual. The same data can just as accurately be described as showing that more than 80% identify as heterosexual and have done so over the past decade. Not too controversial.
Similarly, fewer than 10% of respondents consistently identify as neither male nor female, meaning over 90% still do and have over the last decade. Again, not too controversial.
When you look at the data in its entirety, the only thing this report shows is that when it comes to sexuality, a small percentage of the population deviates from the norm. And things haven't changed much over the past decade.
That's not very interesting or controversial.
Oh, now I get it.
I don’t know - I think it’s OK to focus on phenomena found only in a small percentage of the population. If we didn’t, there’d be a lot of interesting and important stuff we’d have to start ignoring. E.g., we would have had to ignore COVID, because even at the peak of the pandemic, most people didn’t have it.
I do take your point, though, that heterosexuality is and always has been the most common identity, and that focusing on the exceptions could give a misleading impression of their frequency.
Good point. It’s not just about how widespread something is, but also how serious it can be.
The same applies to research on cancer or violent extremism — both, like COVID, affect relatively few people but have serious consequences, including death.
Even with serious topics, though, good research requires comparing what you find in one group to what you find in another. That’s how you know whether the result is specific to the group you’re studying.
Gallup did this in 2024 with sexual identity survey data. Two findings stand out:
•College graduates (9%) and nongraduates (10%) were about equally likely to identify as LGBTQ+.
•Nontraditional sexual identity strongly correlates with age: Gen Z (18–24) 23.1%, Millennials 14.2%, Gen X 5.1%, Boomers 3%, and the Silent Generation 1.8%.
Looking beyond the target group helps put things in context by answering "Compared to what?".
In this case, it suggests that youth are identifying as less heterosexual not because of woke colleges, but because they’re young.
Yep, agreed - it's important research these topics but also keep sight of the frequency of the phenomena under discussion. And good point about comparing across different demographics as a way of getting at underlying causes!
Good stuff as always. I’ve read research on two points that relate here. One is the literature out there on social contagion. It’s more real than some want to admit.
The other is a study that showed that a large number of lesbians turned out to be homosensual rather than homosexual. What they found was that of those who were found to be homosensual, they were abused by men as a child or late adolescence. Thus they were more male-averse than genuinely homosexual.
Once trauma was sorted out, their sexual inclinations redirected.
I hadn't heard the term homosensual, but I have seen and read about the phenomenon. Very interesting!
“fading of a fashion or trend”. Of course it is. As Grainger above says, social contagion is a real thing, especially with the power social media has in the lives of our youth. I suspect most of us who work with teens have understood this from the get-go. I expect to see more declines of this nature, even within the transgender cult. I guess we’ll see.