Thanks for this! It seems to be a testimony to the power of the media. Even conservatives were off by quite a bit. The question that bugs me is whether this might have been intentional. Another question is how many unarmed White men are killed by police each year?
Hi Tom. I err on the side of assuming error rather than intentional deception. My understanding is that similar numbers of unarmed Whites and Blacks are killed, but that because there are more White people, the per capita number for Black people is higher. A big part of this is that Black people have more run-ins with the police.
Yes, it's a good thing to err on the side of not assuming nefarious intent, but the problem is that we see something similar in many areas. Whites have been demonized, men have been demonized, Christians have been demonized, the police have been demonized, conservatives have been demonized, and of course Trump has been demonized and what does this do? It creates friction between groups. So much friction that some think it is ok to assassinate a member of the demonized group. At the same time the above groups have been demonized the opposing groups have been told they are victims. This is a global game of the old Eric Berne classic of "Let's you and him fight." Pitting one group against another. It's as if we are being set up to hate each other. What sort of outcome might one expect from that? Go figure.
Yep, lots of groups have been demonized, and this has created friction between groups. But people have a natural tendency to demonize; most groups are probably demonized to some degree, and in general people are sincere in their demonization rather than tactical. And although demonizing does create friction between groups and other negative consequences, those consequences aren't necessarily the reason people do it - anymore than getting lung cancer is the reason people smoke.
I'm not denying that some people demonize others for political advantage; they definitely do. Often, though, people just repeat sincerely held but misguided ideas, or they repeat ideas they know will go down well in their social groups without really thinking about the potential downstream effects.
Hey Tom. Good question. I’ve done some extensive digging on this issue also. Some will use the population fallacy when giving numbers. But that assumes every single person in a group has violent interactions with police. So that’s out. The numbers I ran in 2018 were using the individuals committing crimes— of those, how many are dying. 47% of white people were killed and 23% of black people were killed.
Meaning: if 10 white men and 10 black men commit a crime and have a violent interaction with police, 5 white men will be shot and 2 black men will be shot.
In 2020, I looked at these numbers from 2018. 12 unarmed black people (all male except one) were killed by police. 10 of those were things like an officer being beaten by 5 men and gets to his pistol and fires or he’ll be beaten to death. So they deem it justified. 2 of those were unjustified and those officers were fired, prosecuted, and convicted.
There’s no epidemic. One is too many. But it’s not an epidemic.
Lastly— there are over 800,000 officers in this country. Even if it were 100, that’s 799,900 officers doing it right.
Thanks Grainger, very interesting stuff. The other thing that crosses my mind is the assumptions of those arrested about how they might be treated. My experience with other White males is that we have been taught to be respectful, stay calm, and don't cause trouble. I wonder if Blacks don't get a very different message. I think if I was told that it was life threatening to be arrested I might have a very different encounter with police.
Thanks for this! It seems to be a testimony to the power of the media. Even conservatives were off by quite a bit. The question that bugs me is whether this might have been intentional. Another question is how many unarmed White men are killed by police each year?
Hi Tom. I err on the side of assuming error rather than intentional deception. My understanding is that similar numbers of unarmed Whites and Blacks are killed, but that because there are more White people, the per capita number for Black people is higher. A big part of this is that Black people have more run-ins with the police.
Yes, it's a good thing to err on the side of not assuming nefarious intent, but the problem is that we see something similar in many areas. Whites have been demonized, men have been demonized, Christians have been demonized, the police have been demonized, conservatives have been demonized, and of course Trump has been demonized and what does this do? It creates friction between groups. So much friction that some think it is ok to assassinate a member of the demonized group. At the same time the above groups have been demonized the opposing groups have been told they are victims. This is a global game of the old Eric Berne classic of "Let's you and him fight." Pitting one group against another. It's as if we are being set up to hate each other. What sort of outcome might one expect from that? Go figure.
Yep, lots of groups have been demonized, and this has created friction between groups. But people have a natural tendency to demonize; most groups are probably demonized to some degree, and in general people are sincere in their demonization rather than tactical. And although demonizing does create friction between groups and other negative consequences, those consequences aren't necessarily the reason people do it - anymore than getting lung cancer is the reason people smoke.
I'm not denying that some people demonize others for political advantage; they definitely do. Often, though, people just repeat sincerely held but misguided ideas, or they repeat ideas they know will go down well in their social groups without really thinking about the potential downstream effects.
Hey Tom. Good question. I’ve done some extensive digging on this issue also. Some will use the population fallacy when giving numbers. But that assumes every single person in a group has violent interactions with police. So that’s out. The numbers I ran in 2018 were using the individuals committing crimes— of those, how many are dying. 47% of white people were killed and 23% of black people were killed.
Meaning: if 10 white men and 10 black men commit a crime and have a violent interaction with police, 5 white men will be shot and 2 black men will be shot.
In 2020, I looked at these numbers from 2018. 12 unarmed black people (all male except one) were killed by police. 10 of those were things like an officer being beaten by 5 men and gets to his pistol and fires or he’ll be beaten to death. So they deem it justified. 2 of those were unjustified and those officers were fired, prosecuted, and convicted.
There’s no epidemic. One is too many. But it’s not an epidemic.
Lastly— there are over 800,000 officers in this country. Even if it were 100, that’s 799,900 officers doing it right.
"There’s no epidemic. One is too many. But it’s not an epidemic."
Nicely put - I agree.
Thanks Grainger, very interesting stuff. The other thing that crosses my mind is the assumptions of those arrested about how they might be treated. My experience with other White males is that we have been taught to be respectful, stay calm, and don't cause trouble. I wonder if Blacks don't get a very different message. I think if I was told that it was life threatening to be arrested I might have a very different encounter with police.