Police Killings: Perception vs. Reality
Many believe US police kill hundreds or even thousands of unarmed Black men every year. The real number is about a dozen.
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In this post, I’d like to share one of the most shocking graphs I’ve seen in the last decade. It’s from a 2022 survey that asked a large sample of Americans a simple question: “If you had to guess, how many unarmed Black men were killed by police in 2021?” The answers are broken down by political orientation, and the results are jaw-dropping.
Among the “very liberal,” 40% guessed 1,000 or more, and 82% guessed 100 or more.
Among the “very conservative,” 16% guessed 1,000 or more, and 44% guessed 100 or more.
The actual number? Eleven.
When it comes to police shootings of unarmed Black men, people’s perceptions are radically out of step with reality. Liberals in particular vastly overestimate the numbers. But many conservatives do too.
Why? Presumably, it’s the result of the extensive media attention given to police killings of Black people, coupled with the extreme rhetoric surrounding the issue, especially in the early 2020s.
Whatever the causes, though, the error matters. On an individual level, the idea that police routinely shoot unarmed Black men is likely to fuel anger, fear, and despair - especially among Black Americans themselves. On a societal level, distorted beliefs make it harder to craft sensible policies. If you think police are killing thousands of unarmed Black men each year, extreme measures such as abolishing or defunding the police might seem justified. If you know the real number is closer to a dozen, more measured reforms look like the wiser path.
To be fair, the survey did reveal modest improvements in accuracy since 2020, especially among conservatives. Still, the gulf between perception and reality remains enormous. And much of the blame, I think, lies at the doorstep of the media and activists.
The research was conducted by the Skeptic Research Center and the Worldview Foundations Research Team. You can read the full report here.
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Thanks for this! It seems to be a testimony to the power of the media. Even conservatives were off by quite a bit. The question that bugs me is whether this might have been intentional. Another question is how many unarmed White men are killed by police each year?
The assumption that police report conditions accurately has been shown to be untrue. There are about police 1200 shootings a year, iirc, and believing that 11 number is naive. Wisdom of crowds may be correcting for what the police call a “weapon” etc. But your broader point is certainty true. Thanks!